Karma, Juice

On Friday, O.J. Simpson was convicted of kidnapping; assault, burglary, coercion, and robbery with a deadly weapon; and kidnapping and criminal conspiracy. I should applaud this payback. I should excoriate this criminal. Sadly, I can only state the obvious. Guilty is thirteen years overdue.

Betting the Pass Line (Last Week: 1-4 Season: 10-10)

Bears (-3 ½) at Lions
On September 24, the Detroit Lions fired President Matt Millen. Unfortunately, Detroit cannot fire their franchise.

Buccaneers (+3 ½) at Broncos
An exquisite contest. Both are stellar. However, the Buccaneers are slightly superior.

Bills at Cardinals (-1)
Last week, Kurt Warner struggled. Despite Buffalo’s record, he will reemerge.

Patriots (-3) at 49ers
Everyone is doubting the Patriots. Why not the 49ers?

Vikings at Saints (-3)
Drew Brees versus anyone? Favor the Saints.

Betting the Pass Line (Last Week: 3-2 Season: 15-10)

Kentucky (+16 ½) at Alabama
On Saturday, Kentucky will stun college football.

Auburn (-4 ½) at Vanderbilt
Simply stated, Vanderbilt is a myth.

Oregon at USC (-16)
Last week, Oregon State defeated USC 27-21. This week, Oregon will receive the retribution.

Ohio State (-1) at Wisconsin
Terrell Pryor is established. Chris Wells is reestablished. Favor the Buckeyes.

Missouri (-10 ½) at Nebraska
In the first half, Nebraska will compete. In the second half, Chase Daniel will conquer.

Yahoo: Economic End of the Beginning

Washington's financial bailout plan is now law. So the credit spigot will start flowing again, banks will resume lending, and an economic recovery can begin, right? Wrong. Experts say the most important thing that needs to happen before the $700 billion bailout even has a chance of working: Home prices must stop falling. That would send a signal to banks that the worst has passed and it's safe to start doling out money again.

The problem is the lending freeze has made getting a mortgage loan tough for everyone except those with sterling credit. That means it will take several months or longer to pare down the glut of houses built when times were good — and those that have come on the market because of soaring foreclosures — before home prices start appreciating.

Housing is a critical component to the U.S. economy and by extension the availability of credit. Roughly one in eight U.S. jobs depends on housing directly or indirectly — from construction workers to bank loan officers to big brokers on Wall Street. A turnaround in housing prices would boost confidence in the wider economy and, experts hope, goad banks into lending again. "Housing traditionally does lead the economy through a recovery. I think it's going to be critical for a sustained recovery in this cycle, too," said Gary Thayer, senior economist at Wachovia Securities.

In the meantime, people like Alicia Elliott are adjusting to a new American reality: Life without credit. The 21-year old Morgantown, W. Va., resident just bought a used mobile home, borrowing $4,000 from friends and family because she couldn't get a bank loan. "I tried to. Couldn't do it. It's just hard to get a loan," said Elliott, who works as a cashier at a Lowe's Cos. store.

She used to get bombarded with offers for credit cards. Now she can't even get one. "I get denied one after another after another. It doesn't matter if you have a co-signer or not," she said.

Trey Simmons, a 31-year-old barber at a Dallas hair salon, said he worries tighter lending standard will squash his goal of buying a home next year. "Credit is a privilege everybody can't get," Simmons said. "I had credit at a young age and messed up."

He now operates on a strictly cash basis. "If I don't have it," he said, referring to cash, "I don't spend it."

The dilemma boils down to a matter of trust. "Credit, by definition, means trust and faith, and for many reasons trust and faith have been damaged," said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at California State University, Channel Islands.

Sohn said the near certainty of a recession makes it too risky for the thousands of small and medium-sized banks across the country to lend to people like Elliot. "Banks know the economy is getting worse, so ... they will keep being cautious," said Sohn, a former banking executive.

Still, the government hopes that by scooping up billions of dollars in bad mortgage debt and other toxic assets, banks eventually can clean up their shaky balance sheets, crack open the vaults and send money washing through the system again. The rescue plan also raises the federally insured deposit limit from $100,000 to $250,000, a move that could boost banks' reserves and further grease the lending wheels.

Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., the Financial Services Committee chairman and a key negotiator over the past weeks, said the measure was just the beginning of a much larger task Congress will tackle next year: overhauling housing policy and financial regulation in a legislative effort comparable to the New Deal. In the meantime, the Treasury Department is moving swiftly to get the plan started. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Friday he did not wait for final approval of the measure to begin preparation. He has been lining up outside advisers as his staff works out details on a multitude of complex issues.

But several hurdles could trip up the plan. For starters, even when the Treasury starts buying bad assets, some banks may hoard the cash they receive in return until they see how the plan pans out. That has the potential to make the lending logjam worse, said Vincent R. Reinhart, former director of the Federal Reserve's monetary affairs division. "They may sit on the sidelines and wait to see (the bailout) get some traction. The problem is if everybody sits on the sidelines, nobody gets in the game. It's a risk," he said.

It also creates a vicious cycle: No trust means no lending; tight credit means it's harder to buy a home; the more difficult it is to buy or sell a home, the further home prices will fall; and the further prices drop, the more foreclosures there will be. U.S. home prices — down 20 percent from their peak in July 2006 — still have further to fall, and must hit bottom before demand picks up. The long-awaited bottom in prices could be a year or more away.

But Jim Gillespie, chief executive of Coldwell Banker Real Estate, said he hopes that lower prices, combined with the government's actions will jump-start stagnant demand. The federal bailout plan, he said, "will give people reassurance that mortgage money is available."

Jobs are another big concern. The stranglehold on credit has choked companies big and small that depend on regular inflows of borrowed money to pay employees and stay afloat. The Labor Department said Friday that employers cut 159,000 jobs in September, the fastest pace of losses in more than five years. Experts say that number will grow as the effects of the credit gridlock course through the economy in coming days and weeks.

The nation's unemployment rate is now 6.1 percent, up from 4.7 percent a year ago. Over the last year, the number of unemployed people has risen by 2.2 million to 9.5 million. The unemployment rate could rise to as high as 7.5 percent by late 2009, economists predict. If that happens, it would mark the highest since after the 1990-91 recession.

Boosting employment is critical to kick-starting lending because "if jobs are growing, then incomes are a growing, and if incomes are growing then people are consuming," Reinhart said.

Consumers and businesses have retrenched so much that some analysts fear the economy stalled or shrank in the third quarter that ended last week. The Labor Department report Friday showed wage growth for workers is slowing, meaning they'll be more hard-pressed to spend, especially for something as expensive as a home. Many economists predict the economy will contract in the final quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of next year. That would meet the classic definition of a recession — two consecutive quarters of a shrinking economy.

One bright spot: optimism hasn't been totally squashed yet. Morgan Cavanaugh, proprietor of Moriarty's Pub in downtown Cleveland, has been trying to sell another bar he owns to ease his workload, but the prospective buyer hasn't been able to raise the money. Now that the bailout legislation has the green light, he's hopeful he'll get a deal done. "It passed. Let's work something out," Cavanaugh told the man over a cell phone Friday just after the House approved the plan.

He flipped the phone shut and smiled from behind the weathered mahogany bar of his 75-year-old Irish pub. "He's going to put the loan request in again. It's looking up," Cavanaugh said.

Economic Bradycardia

On Friday, Congress passed economic resuscitation (263-171). Unfortunately, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 157.47 points. In September, 159,000 jobs were lost. America’s economy… One sector exhales. Another explodes.

Yahoo: South Africa’s Teenage Challenge

On the way home from school, Thabang Thimbela stops off to visit his girlfriend, a few blocks from the tin shack where he and his foster parents and seven foster brothers and sisters live. The teenager has never told his foster parents, Olga Thimbela and Pontsho Monamodi, about Lebo, but they know about her all the same.

They know she has a baby girl by another father. They know that Thabang's friends are urging him to have sex with her. And they worry that Thabang may some day suffer the same fate as his mother, who died of AIDS in June 2006. Thabang says he's not ready to have sex with Lebo – and in any case she won't agree to it until he graduates from high school. But Thabang still says he has to hide his relationship from Olga and Pontsho. "They will shout at me," he says. "Eish, it's a problem, but I love that girl."

The Monamodis are a family brought together by AIDS, a scourge that has killed nearly 4 million South Africans in the past two decades. With four foster children from one deceased sister and two more children from a deceased aunt, Olga and Pontsho have stretched their meager resources to keep everyone fed, clothed, and in school. But as the older ones mature, the young parents are now struggling to prevent AIDS from reaching the next generation.

Raising teenagers, and guiding them to make good decisions about sex, can test parents in the best of circumstances. But the Monamodis are raising their teens in a country where an estimated 1 in 5 citizens is HIV positive, and where nearly 1,000 people die from AIDS each day. And they have the additional challenge of raising children who have recently lost the only authority figure they have ever known, their parents, to AIDS.

Together with donors like the United States and the European Union, the South African government has launched a belated all-out war on HIV, providing anti-retroviral treatment free of charge to those diagnosed with HIV and trying to prevent future transmission with a mixture of education programs promoting abstinence, faithfulness to one's partner, and the use of condoms. But with only 28 percent of those in need receiving treatment as of 2007, South Africa's parents are a more reliable source of pressure to prevent HIV from reaching a new generation.

But Thabang's foster parents wonder if they can build a rapport fast enough to influence the decisions these youngsters may soon make about having sex? At Retlamile Secondary School, Thabang sits in the back of a classroom full of 10th graders. He's not the oldest in his class, at age 19, but he is among the smallest, and his classmates tease him constantly about his clothes and his back-country accent.

Recently, when Thabang was walking home in his brand-new black dress shoes, he found himself surrounded by six boys from his school. He remembered Olga's advice. "Here in Joburg," she said, "if somebody wants something from you, you give. If you see you can run, you run. If you fight back, they gonna kill you." Thabang gave his shoes and didn't return to school for several days, both out of fear and because his school's dress code requires black dress shoes.

Thabang has few friends at the school, and his grades – never great in his small hometown of Pampierstad – have suffered since he arrived in Johannesburg. He is repeating 10th grade after failing most of his classes last year. The one teacher that Thabang actually likes is Grace Lolwane, who teaches Life Orientation, a required course that covers health issues, including the risks of unprotected sex and drug or alcohol abuse.

"Thabang, do you have a girlfriend?" asks Ms. Lolwane, during a recent counseling session.

"Yes, ma'am."

"Did you have sexual intercourse with that girl?"

"No, ma'am."

She sighs. She has no idea if she is getting through to the kids, she says, because many of them are older and ill-behaved and repeating grades or dropping out. She eyes Thabang. "But this one, he's always shy. He doesn't speak in class. Even though he has problems he doesn't come to me," she says.

Compared with her older foster brother, 14-year-old Bulelwa would seem to be far from making any decision having to do with sex, protected or otherwise. In class, she sits toward the front. At home, she hits the books and helps her siblings with their homework.

At lunch, and after school, she hangs out with a small clique of strong, assertive, academically minded girls. For these girls, boys always hover, but they never seem to have anything intelligent to say. But statistically, a 14-year-old South African like Bulelwa is not out of the danger zone for HIV. The prevalence of HIV among 15- to 19-year-olds nationwide, according to the latest government study, is around 13 percent.

A separate study of youths aged 14 to 28 in the South African city of East London, conducted by the Fort Hare Institute of Social and Economic Research, found that one out of five male students had had 11 or more partners, and 20 percent of this number had taken no precautions against HIV infection the last time they had had sex. Their behavior was not the result of ignorance; 93 percent of respondents in the survey said they had been taught about HIV, and 83 percent said they knew someone infected with HIV.

Speaking with her Life Orientation teacher, Thabitha Mabatha, Bulelwa says there is no way she is going to fall prey to peer pressure or premarital sex. Bulelwa wants to be a lawyer or a pilot, not a pregnant school dropout. Young girls who have sex "are not serious about life," Bulelwa says, and "the parents are spoiling them."

Bulelwa's friends' eyes roll when she talks like this, but Bulelwa is not just repeating what her teachers want to hear. As an orphan, Bulelwa has learned to grow up fast and look after her own interests. "I want to tell them [her girlfriends] that they must not depend upon their parent, because when their parent passes away, there's no way that they can get the things that they were getting from their parent."

Ms. Mabatha, says that it's common now for kids to start having sex by age 14. "When I was in Grade 8 ... we were not so mature, we were just playing, and, you know, we used to study," says Mabatha. Society, she says, has "changed a lot. A lot. Our children will not be like us."

The past year has been good for Bulelwa's foster parents, Olga and Pontsho. Pontsho has found work as a security guard, a job that keeps him away from home most nights, but brings in much-needed money. Olga has found enough house-keeping work to keep her busy throughout the week. For the first time in years, there is plenty of food, enough clothing for the children, and the family hopes to save up to pay the deposit required for hooking up their shack up to the electricity pole outside their gate.

Their biggest concern now is wisely guiding their oldest foster children. They know Thabang has a girlfriend. They worry that Bulelwa may get sidetracked by the same temptations that have brought down many. Pontsho hopes he's a better parent than his parents were. "Our parents weren't good enough to tell us everything. So some of the things we've had to find ourselves," he says.

"The only thing that worries us is AIDS, because at least at this stage, we can't cure it. That's the problem. Even if we don't tell our kids about this thing, it's there, and it's destroying us."

Olga says she talks to both of her older children about sex, and encourages Bulelwa, especially, to continue with her education, because "if she is going to get pregnant at 14, it's not going to be good, because to be a mother, you're supposed to look after your kids."

Bulelwa is easy to talk with, Olga adds, because she's honest. But Thabang is harder, because he's a boy and he usually just answers "yes" and "no," she says. How can she get him to think more clearly about his future, if he simply won't talk, she wonders. Recently, Olga lost her temper with Thabang, when he denied persistent rumors that he has a girlfriend. "Thabang, he is a difficult guy," says Pontsho. "Even if I'm trying, to [be friends with him], he always avoiding me."

Olga knows the cost of an early pregnancy. Even though she dropped out of school early, and never learned to read, she knows the opportunities that can come from an education. "I want those children to be a success," says Olga. "I know Bulelwa, maybe soon she going to have a boyfriend.

"I said to Bulelwa, [When] you open your heart to someone else, you must talk to me, because you are going to get disappointed sometimes," Olga says. "You [are] going to be happy sometimes. You find the right one sometimes, and sometimes you find the wrong one.... [When] you get someone, you tell me, and I'll show you this is wrong, this is right. I've been there before ."

At his girlfriend's house, Thabang hangs out and giggles and holds the baby girl of his girlfriend, Lebo. The baby's name is "Happy," and while the young mother, Lebo, is clearly smitten with her baby, she's not so taken with the baby's father, or with the majority of the men she meets. Of Thabang, she says, "he is not a criminal, he don't like beating girls. He's a cool guy." Of the baby's father, she says, "Eish, he's not here. I don't like him. It was a mistake." And of her own father, she says, "my father is um, eish, [he's] a difficult person, but my mother likes him."

Lebo says she won't get married to Thabang, and won't have sex with him either, until he finishes school. She herself would like to finish school and go into engineering. But at 17 years old, in seventh grade, with a 2-month-old baby, the odds are stacked against her. Thabang has less ambition for school. He'd like to set up a stall in the township and sell vegetables and apples.

It's clear why Thabang keeps coming back here. He unwinds around Lebo, becomes more confident, more responsible and caring. Lebo gives him a chance to be a man, and perhaps a good husband and father. "The way she is, is beauty," he says. Thabang's English is broken. It's the product of a township education, and like many South Africans, Thabang mixes up the pronouns "he" and "she," because his own native Tswana language doesn't make such distinctions. "When I talk with [her], [she] understand, [she] don't treat me [bad]. [She] understand and listen."

Thabang knows he has to tell his foster parents about Lebo, and he hopes that they will not shout at him, because they will see his love for her. "I want to tell them," he says. When the time comes, "they don't shout [at] me because they will love me, and so I will love the girl and take care of us."

Vice President or Political Strategist?

Sarah Palin: “Todd and I, we'd be happy to get to Michigan and walk through those plants of the car manufacturers. We'd be so happy to get to speak to the people in Michigan who are hurting because the economy is hurting. I want to get back to Michigan and I want to try.”

New York’s Resolution… Another Mistake

On Friday, the New York Mets retained Manager Jerry Manuel. Manuel signed a two-year contract. New York’s decision is incorrect. Manuel was an appropriate interim. He is not a solution.

Monologue Joke of the Evening

“In the interview with Katie Couric, Sarah Palin said she can’t name a Supreme Court ruling she disagrees with. She did say she objected to several of Paula Abdul’s rulings on American Idol.”

Late Show with David Letterman

Castroneves Pleads, Mocks Plight

Helio Castroneves: “I'm a race car driver. This is a very difficult situation. I'll be strong and I'll win this race. It's been a long day. It's been an emotional day, obviously. I am not guilty.”

NEW RULE

Panic is unnecessary.

On Thursday, Senator John McCain conceded Michigan. No resources. No staff. No television. Why? Obviously, Sarah Palin and the economy have owned the conversation. However, this election is unstable. Circumstances can shift. Barack Obama could slip. Americans remain interested. McCain should also.

Worth A Read

Everyday Should Be Saturday

Blogging college football.

The Daily Smak

Hey, didn’t you used to be Helio Castroneves ?

According to a study, illegal immigration has declined. I am not surprised. Mexico’s economy is wretched. America’s economy is wretched. Why should immigrants risk their lives?

Today’s top five or next potential loser (1) Vanderbilt, (2) Connecticut, (3) Alabama, (4) Penn State, (5) Texas

Biden, Palin Meet America, Expectations

On Thursday, Senator Joe Biden and Governor Sarah Palin debated. Each was effective. Each was also imperfect. Biden was contemplative. His appearance was sapped. His answers were prickly. Palin was exuberant. Her expressions were animated. Her sentences were marathons.

Vice President of the United States is peculiar. The office cannot enact policy. The candidate can implode campaigns. Tonight, Biden and Palin endured. Neither advanced their campaign. Neither imperiled their campaign.

Joe Biden vs. Sarah Palin Complete Text

Another Afternoon, Another Annihilation

On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 348 points. Someone save the economy…

Monologue Joke of the Evening

“CBS aired Part 2 of Katie Couric’s sitdown with Sarah Palin and once again, Katie did not shy away from asking tough questions, and once again, Sarah did not shy away from giving embarrassing answers.”

Jimmy Kimmel Live

Survivor: Kota Forsakes First

On Thursday, Fang garnered immunity. Subsequently, Paloma schemed. Her objective? Self-preservation. She did not succeed. Via a 4-1 vote, Paloma was eliminated.

Al Davis Must Depart

Warren Sapp: “Nobody tells you how bad it is… Any person that calls me on the telephone, [I tell them] do not go anywhere near Oakland. He [Lane Kiffin] came in there with a change of mentality. The whole system. He changed how the locker room looked because it was going to take that kind of overhaul for Oakland to become the proud franchise we all knew it was.”

“[Davis] is the common equation. You take him out, put him at home watching film or whatever he is doing -- you have a functioning football organization. But once he comes over the top, he goes and starts moving it around. Al Davis knows football -- it's just '60s and '70s football. That's what it is. He's thinking that Cliff Branch is outside and [Jim] Plunkett is dropping back and you can throw it 80 yards down the field -- deep ball, deep ball, deep ball.”

New York Malaise

On Thursday, the New York Mets retained General Manager Omar Minaya. Minaya signed a four-year contract. Consecutive collapses rate retention?

Buffalo’s Basis: Evans Earns Payday

On Thursday, the Buffalo Bills retained wide receiver Lee Evans. Evans signed a 4-year, $37.25 million contract. During his career, Evans has amassed 247 receptions, 4,059 yards, and 30 touchdowns. He has never craved attention. He has never sought headlines. Evans is not flashy. He is not quotable. He is simply brilliant. His payday is deserved.

Cult of Petulance

On Thursday, Helio Castroneves was indicted. Castroneves was charged with income tax evasion. Celebrities are ridiculous. Pay your taxes.

NEW RULE

Bela Karolyi must shut up.

On Wednesday, the International Olympic Committee exonerated China’s gymnasts. Hallelujah. Finally, Karolyi can cease whining. He can state the obvious. China’s gymnasts were not illegal. America’s were weak.

The Daily Smak

On Wednesday, Berkshire Hathaway assisted GE. Clearly, economic resuscitation is unnecessary. Warren Buffett can save the world.

According to Lance Armstrong, his samples are unavailable. Voluntary interaction with blood and urine… Only the French…

Today’s top five or greatest Vice Presidents (1) Theodore Roosevelt, (2) Harry Truman, (3) Lyndon Johnson, (4) Gerald Ford, (5) John Adams

Just Wince Baby

Al Davis is certifiable. He is not eccentric. He is not erratic. He is genius exsanguinated. From 1928-1976, Howard Hughes amassed an empire. He managed madness. Amidst his silver pajamas and smoked shades, Davis is another recluse.

On Tuesday, the Oakland Raiders fired Coach Lane Kiffin. During his press conference, Davis exploded. “I wanted to make it work, to be real honest,” said Davis said. “It's my belief that I would work and it could work. I wanted to make it work. Maybe I didn't want to admit that I'd made a mistake. And to be quite frank with you, I'm firing him for cause right now. I'm not firing him for anything else other than cause. I think he conned me like he conned all you people.”

Kiffin’s response was appropriate. “It [the firing] was something I wasn't proud of to be associated with, and I was embarrassed for him, to tell you the truth,” he said.

Since 2003, the Raiders have accrued a 20-64 record. They have fired Bill Callahan (15-17), Norv Turner (9-23), Art Shell (2-14), and Kiffin (5-15). Clearly, Offensive Line Coach Tom Cable’s challenge is pronounced. “This is in many ways a strange day,” said Cable. “I have a friend who lost a job. That's difficult in this business but, as we know, this is a business. It is time for us to move forward and to put the past behind us. ... We have a good coaching staff here and a good football team here.”

In 2000, former NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue approached Cincinnati Bengals Owner Mike Brown. Tagliabue’s message was simple. Brown was an embarrassment. Commissioner Roger Goodell, Davis warrants a similar statement.

One Exaltation, One Expiration

On Wednesday, the Senate passed economic resuscitation (74-25). Unfortunately, automobile sales plunged. America’s economy… One sector exhales. Another explodes.

Monologue Joke of the Evening

“On this day in 1881, the New York Stock Exchange moved into a newer, larger location. Earlier today, they moved into a basement apartment in Queens.”

Late Show with David Letterman

The Enemy of My Enemy…

On Wednesday, the Senate approved the Indo-United States Civilian Nuclear Agreement. Given Pakistan’s volatility, America required an ally.

Yahoo: The AIDS Century

The most pervasive global strain of HIV began spreading in humans around 1900 in sub-Saharan Africa, a new study claims. The research, which is published in the current issue of Nature, found that HIV began spreading between 1884 and 1924, around the same time urban centers in west central Africa were established. This estimated time of origin is decades earlier than the previous estimate of 1930.

For the study, researchers analyzed tissue samples and uncovered the second-oldest genetic sequence of HIV-1 group M. They used this and other HIV-1 genetic sequences to construct a family tree of the origin of the viral strain and to estimate the time of origin of HIV-1 group M.

The researchers worked with a 1960 sample of HIV gene fragments from a wax-embedded lymph-node tissue biopsy from a woman in Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. This 1960 virus is the second-oldest known HIV-1 group M genetic sequence, with the oldest being a 1959 blood sample from a man also from Kinshasa.

"Previous work on HIV sequencing had been done on frozen samples, and there are only so many of those samples available," lead researcher Michael Worobey, an assistant professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona in Tucson, said in a university news release.

"From that point on, the next oldest sequences that anyone has recovered are from the late 1970s and 1980s, the era when we knew about AIDS. Now, for the first time, we have been able to compare two relatively ancient HIV strains. That helped us to calibrate how quickly the virus evolved and make some really robust inferences about when it crossed into humans, how quickly the epidemic grew from that time and what factors allowed the virus to enter and become a successful human pathogen," said Worobey.

Previous studies have shown that HIV spread from chimpanzees to humans in southeastern Cameroon. Worobey said that the HIV epidemic that resulted from the turn-of-the-century spread correlates to the urbanization of colonial Africa, principally the present-day city of Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The growth of cities and associated high-risk behaviors may have been a principal cause of the rapid spread of the virus. Worobey is optimistic about the eventual extinction of the HIV virus. "I think the picture that has emerged here, where changes the human population experienced may have opened the door to the spread of HIV, is a good reminder that we can make changes now that could help reverse the epidemic. If HIV has one weak spot, it is that it is a relatively poorly transmitted virus. From better testing and prevention, to wider use of the antiretroviral drug therapy, there are a number of ways to reduce transmission and force this virus back into extinction," he said.

MLB Playoff Predictions

League Division Series

American League

Anaheim Angels defeat Boston Red Sox 3-2
Chicago White Sox defeat Tampa Bay Devil Rays 3-2

National League

Chicago Cubs defeat Los Angeles Dodgers 3-2
Philadelphia Phillies defeat Milwaukee Brewers 3-0

League Championship Series

American League

Anaheim Angels defeat Chicago White Sox 4-3

National League

Chicago Cubs defeat Philadelphia Phillies 4-1

World Series

Anaheim Angels defeat Chicago Cubs 4-3

Monologue Joke of the Evening

“Now that Congress is not in session, the economy made a big comeback. That’s the key… send these idiots home.”

The Tonight Show

Thomas Friedman: America’s Position

I was channel surfing on Monday, following the stock market’s nearly 800-point collapse, when a commentator on CNBC caught my attention. He was being asked to give advice to viewers as to what were the best positions to be in to ride out the market storm. Without missing a beat, he answered: “Cash and fetal.”

I’m in both — because I know an unprecedented moment when I see one. I’ve been frightened for my country only a few times in my life: In 1962, when, even as a boy of 9, I followed the tension of the Cuban missile crisis; in 1963, with the assassination of J.F.K.; on Sept. 11, 2001; and on Monday, when the House Republicans brought down the bipartisan rescue package.

But this moment is the scariest of all for me because the previous three were all driven by real or potential attacks on the U.S. system by outsiders. This time, we are doing it to ourselves. This time, it’s our own failure to regulate our own financial system and to legislate the proper remedy that is doing us in. I’ve always believed that America’s government was a unique political system — one designed by geniuses so that it could be run by idiots. I was wrong. No system can be smart enough to survive this level of incompetence and recklessness by the people charged to run it.

This is dangerous. We have House members, many of whom I suspect can’t balance their own checkbooks, rejecting a complex rescue package because some voters, whom I fear also don’t understand, swamped them with phone calls. I appreciate the popular anger against Wall Street, but you can’t deal with this crisis this way.

This is a credit crisis. It’s all about confidence. What you can’t see is how bank A will no longer lend to good company B or mortgage company C. Because no one is sure the other guy’s assets and collateral are worth anything, which is why the government needs to come in and put a floor under them. Otherwise, the system will be choked of credit, like a body being choked of oxygen and turning blue.

Well, you say, “I don’t own any stocks — let those greedy monsters on Wall Street suffer.” You may not own any stocks, but your pension fund owned some Lehman Brothers commercial paper and your regional bank held subprime mortgage bonds, which is why you were able refinance your house two years ago. And your local airport was insured by A.I.G., and your local municipality sold municipal bonds on Wall Street to finance your street’s new sewer system, and your local car company depended on the credit markets to finance your auto loan — and now that the credit market has dried up, Wachovia bank went bust and your neighbor lost her secretarial job there.

We’re all connected. As others have pointed out, you can’t save Main Street and punish Wall Street anymore than you can be in a rowboat with someone you hate and think that the leak in the bottom of the boat at his end is not going to sink you, too. The world really is flat. We’re all connected. “Decoupling” is pure fantasy.

I totally understand the resentment against Wall Street titans bringing home $60 million bonuses. But when the credit system is imperiled, as it is now, you have to focus on saving the system, even if it means bailing out people who don’t deserve it. Otherwise, you’re saying: I’m going to hold my breath until that Wall Street fat cat turns blue. But he’s not going to turn blue; you are, or we all are. We have to get this right.

My rabbi told this story at Rosh Hashana services on Tuesday: A frail 80-year-old mother is celebrating her birthday and her three sons each give her a present. Harry gives her a new house. Harvey gives her a new car and driver. And Bernie gives her a huge parrot that can recite the entire Torah. A week later, she calls her three sons together and says: “Harry, thanks for the nice house, but I only live in one room. Harvey, thanks for the nice car, but I can’t stand the driver. Bernie, thanks for giving your mother something she could really enjoy. That chicken was delicious.”

Message to Congress: Don’t get cute. Don’t give us something we don’t need. Don’t give us something designed to solve your political problems. Yes, Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke need to accept strict oversights and the taxpayer must be guaranteed a share in the upside profits from all rescued banks. But other than that, give them the capital and the flexibility to put out this fire.

I always said to myself: Our government is so broken that it can only work in response to a huge crisis. But now we’ve had a huge crisis, and the system still doesn’t seem to work. Our leaders, Republicans and Democrats, have gotten so out of practice of working together that even in the face of this system-threatening meltdown they could not agree on a rescue package, as if they lived on Mars and were just visiting us for the week, with no stake in the outcome. The story cannot end here. If it does, assume the fetal position.

NEW RULE

Socialism is selective.

On Monday, Congress rejected economic resuscitation. On Tuesday, President Bush signed automotive resuscitation. For Chrysler, Ford, and General Motors, the bill provides loans.

Obviously, I am not an economist. Automakers merit attention. However, economic rescue is socialism? Automotive rescue is not?

Worth A Read

Next Right

Politics. Strategy. Action.

The Daily Smak

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 777.68 points. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 485 points. Once again, I am not an economist. This is why.

On Monday, a mother was arrested. Her crime? From a sippy cup, her child consumed alcohol. Will Britney Spears ever recover?

Today’s top five or World Series favorites (1) Cubs, (2) Angels, (3) Dodgers, (4) White Sox, (5) Red Sox

Success Scores: Yankees Retain Cashman

On Tuesday, the New York Yankees retained General Manager Brian Cashman. Cashman signed a three-year contract. During Cashman’s tenure, New York has accrued an 1,170-770 record. They have amassed three World Series championships, five American League championships, and nine division championships. Cashman warranted retention.

Benson Scores Second Chance

On Tuesday, the Cincinnati Bengals signed Cedric Benson. I applaud the Bengals. Benson merited another opportunity.

St. Louis Realism

On Tuesday, the St. Louis Rams chose a quarterback. Marc Bulger is their starter. Different Coach. Different Field General. Same Franchise.

Fox News: Will NASA Endure?

The signs of a midlife crisis are there: A 50th birthday approaching; a longing for the glory days of youth; a hankering to dump the aging partner of 27 years; and a costly flirtation with a new young thing. This isn't some balding businessman in a sports car. It's NASA.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration, which opened its doors on Oct. 1 1958, is struggling with its identity and its future. The agency's angst is Velcroed to the vehicle that NASA has been married to for more than half its life and is seeking to dump — the space shuttle.

The shuttle has kept NASA going to the same place over and over, circling the Earth 18,449 times since 1981. For much of that time, NASA's mission has been to build the international space station, a place to do research and to learn how to live in space. But the NASA of the future is looking to retire the shuttle in 2010 and build new space vehicles to return astronauts to the moon and, someday, to travel to Mars.

Doing that requires a clean break from the shuttle program. But a combination of pressures — political, economic, engineering and diplomatic — make it difficult, costly and some say unwise to ditch the shuttle as soon as planned. While NASA publicly talks about shuttle retirement, it's also quietly making sure it could postpone those plans. Divorce isn't as easy as it once looked.

Making the break from the shuttle program would mean five years without an American way to get into space, forcing astronauts to hitch a ride with the Russians to the multibillion-dollar space station that U.S. taxpayers funded. That makes many people uncomfortable. The two presidential nominees and many in Congress say they want to keep the shuttle flying past the 2010 retirement date mandated by the Bush administration.

But doing so would be costly, and given the current financial meltdown, big spending on NASA in the future doesn't seem likely. NASA Administrator Michael Griffin's own frustrations leaked out in an internal e-mail in August. "My own view is about as pessimistic as it is possible to be," he said, referring to the shuttle program and the future. In that e-mail, he said the White House science and budget offices were on a "jihad" to retire the shuttle.

Publicly, Griffin supports the Bush administration's plan to retire the shuttle in two years. But people close to him say he is troubled with that timetable, and his e-mail reflects that. Also, NASA has undertaken a study on how to keep its three shuttles flying longer. Still, NASA would rather focus on the future.

In some ways, the future is reminiscent of the moonshot days of the 1960s. The new rocket would have an Apollo-like capsule on top. Astronauts would first fly in that ship in 2015 but stay in Earth's orbit, with a moon landing by 2020. Once there, astronauts would build a base camp and eventually journey to Mars.

If the shuttle is shelved after space station construction ends, that leaves five years with the Russian Soyuz as the sole ride to get there. After the 2004 Columbia disaster, NASA did rely on the Russians for trips to the space station for 2 1/2 years while shuttles were grounded for safety improvements. But after Russia's invasion of the republic of Georgia, top NASA officials have called the idea of depending on the Russians "unseemly."

Apollo 13 Commander Jim Lovell said the notion that Americans would pay the bulk of the cost for the space station and then either abandon it to the Russians or depend on them for transportation doesn't make sense. "If we're going to build it, then we better use it," Lovell said. "If the shuttles are in good condition, keep them flying."

John McCain and Barack Obama, who have similar space policies, both want to shorten the gap in spaceflight that follows the end of the shuttle program. They support the general idea of going back to the moon, but whoever wins the election will probably re-examine current plans, experts said.

Meanwhile, NASA leaders must contend with a dissident team of employees and contractors who have so little faith in the chosen design for the new moon rocket that they are working on their own time on a cheaper alternative. Because of all these issues, the space agency's own quasi-independent safety panel warned this summer of an unusual sense of anxiety among workers.

Perhaps adding to frustrations, NASA announced Monday that its high-profile mission in October to repair the Hubble Space Telescope was delayed until next year because of an unexpected glitch in the orbiting telescope. On top of all that, China is becoming a new space competitor. Chinese astronauts took a spacewalk on Saturday, and the head of the Chinese space agency said he plans to send astronauts to the moon "in the near future." A new moon race could be on.

"There's a lot of problems NASA has at middle age. It's being asked to do too much," said Syracuse University public policy professor Henry Lambright. "It's unrealistic to expect you to carry on this burden of the past, the shuttle and the space station, while you do something new without more money. You can't do it."

Suggesting NASA is having a mere midlife crisis is sugarcoating the situation, said Hans Mark, an aerospace engineering professor at the University of Texas who was a NASA administrator during the Reagan administration. "It's not a midlife crisis. It's a disaster," Mark said. "We can't possibly give up on the shuttle and let Russians be the only ones get to the space station. We don't have a higher-tech replacement for the shuttle, and we screwed up the space station" by putting it in an orbit that prevents it from being useful for missions to the moon or Mars.

Wayne Hale, NASA's deputy associate administrator, tried to put the situation in the best light. "We are at a crossroads," Hale said, noting the future could be viewed as dangerous or an opportunity.

"If we had done things the way we wish we could have, we wouldn't be here," Hale said. "But here we are... It's a shame we got in this situation."

John Logsdon, a space policy expert at the National Air and Space Museum, said: "NASA at 50 is still suffering from a decision made when it was 12."

During the race to the moon, NASA got special treatment, essentially getting a blank check during the Kennedy space race era. In 1970, President Nixon ruled it would be treated like all other federal agencies, and "NASA has been in the midst of a perpetual crisis ever since," Logsdon said.

These days a new attitude is called for from an agency that began as risk-taking one that raced the Russians. As Hale put it, NASA must become "more mature."

Monologue Joke of the Evening

“To give you an idea of how bad the economy is, over the weekend, I wrote a check and the bank bounced.”

The Tonight Show

Barney Frank Frappes Republicans

NEW RULE

Patriotism trumps partisanship.

On Monday, Congress rejected economic resuscitation (228-205). The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 777.68 points. Amidst this calamity, Democrats blamed Republicans. Republicans blamed Democrats. Enough. Analysis, partisanship, and regulation will wait. Economic explosion will not. America is burning. Extinguish the fire.

The Daily Smak

Hey, didn’t you used to be Scott Linehan?

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 777.68 points. I am worried. Last night, I attempted a withdrawal. The receipt said “Are you serious?”

Today’s top five or Paris Hilton’s former friends (1) Nicole Ritchie, (2) Britney Spears, (3) Kim Kardashian, (4) Lindsay Lohan, (5) John McCain

What Kind of Day Has It Been?

On Monday, Congress rejected economic resuscitation (228-205). Citigroup purchased Wachovia. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 777.68 points.

I am shocked and sickened. For those responsible, I wish to extract their eyes. Spit into their skulls. Democrats and Republicans imperiled the economy. They renounced their responsibilities. They weakened our nation.

Stupidity of the Lambs

On Monday, the St. Louis Rams fired Coach Scott Linehan. Defensive Coordinator Jim Haslett supplanted him. “We all share in the responsibilities of losing games,” said Owner Chip Rosenbloom. “That includes the coaches, it includes the players, it includes the administration, it includes the ownership.”

During his tenure, Linehan logged an 11-25 ledger. Upon his firing, the Rams stood 0-4. They will not improve.

GAME BALLS (NFL Edition)

Drew Brees (QB – Saints): 23/35, 363 yards, 3 td
(Win: 31-17 vs. 49ers)

Laveranues Coles (WR – Jets): 8 receptions, 105 yards, 3 td
(Win: 56-35 vs. Cardinals)

Brett Favre (QB – Jets): 24/34, 289 yards, 6 td
(Win: 56-35 vs. Cardinals)

Earnest Graham (RB – Buccaneers): 20 carries, 111 yards, 1 td
(Win: 30-21 vs. Packers)

Larry Johnson (RB – Chiefs): 28 carries, 198 yards, 2 td
(Win: 33-19 vs. Broncos)

Lance Moore (WR – Saints): 7 receptions, 101 yards, 2 td
(Win: 31-17 vs. 49ers)

Santana Moss (WR – Redskins): 8 receptions, 145 yards
(Win: 26-24 at Cowboys)

Muhsin Muhammad (WR – Panthers): 8 receptions, 147 yards, 1 td
(Win: 24-9 vs. Falcons)

GAME BALLS (College Football Edition)

Donald Brown (RB – Connecticut): 33 carries, 190 yards, 1 td
(Win: 26-21 at Louisville)

Marshawn Gilyard (WR – Cincinnati): 7 receptions, 146 yards, 2 td
(Win: 17-15 at Akron)

Shay Hodge (RB – Mississippi): 3 receptions, 133 yards, 1 td
(Win: 31-30 at Florida)

Manuel Johnson (WR – Oklahoma): 5 receptions, 206 yards, 3 td
(Win: 35-10 vs. TCU)

Colin Kaepernick (QB – Nevada): 11/16, 176 yards, 2 td; 18 carries, 240 yards, 3 td
(Win: 49-27 at UNLV)

Case Keenum (QB – Houston): 36/44, 399 yards, 3 td
(Win: 41-24 at East Carolina)

Eric Kettani (RB – Navy): 19 carries, 175 yards
(Win: 27-17 at Wake Forest)

Javon Ringer (RB – Michigan State): 44 carries, 198 yards, 1 td
(Win: 42-29 at Indiana)

James Rodgers (RB – Oregon State): 37 carries, 186 yards, 2 td
(Win: 27-21 vs. USC)

Evan Royster (RB – Penn State): 19 carries, 139 yards
(Win: 38-24 vs. Illinois)

Antone Smith (RB – Florida State): 25 carries, 154 yards, 3 td
(Win: 39-21 vs. Colorado)

Curtis Steele (RB – Memphis): 22 carries, 203 yards, 1 td
(Win: 29-17 vs. Arkansas State)

Howard Humbled… Finally

Josh Howard: “I'd like to say that I'm truly and really am sorry for everything that's happened in the last five months. This is not the way I carry myself, not how I want to be portrayed. I'm sorry to everybody I've offended. I'm upset with myself and the way I've acted.”

“It [the national anthem video] was me joking around. Guys were out there making fun and I decided to get along in it. I wasn't using my head. I guess the valuable lesson I did learn is that words really do hurt. You're held accountable for what you say. That's not me. ... I went to military school. I have friends that served in the military. I know how it is to wake up and salute the flag. The national anthem every game, I have my hand over my heart.”

“I didn't do anything to correct it. I let a lot of stuff go. It wasn't me. I'm trying to move forward. This [the press conference] is the perfect opportunity. Everybody's here. There's nothing to hide. I made a mistake. I'm ready to move forward.”

NEW RULE

Main Street is a myth.

Everyday, Democrats and Republicans exalt Main Street. Evidently, Main Street and Wall Street are equals. Seriously? Main Street’s citizens are idiots. Main Street’s values are insular. Politicians must accept the obvious. Main Street merits nothing.

Worth A Read

Paper Economy

A real estate bubble blog.

The Daily Smak

Hey, didn’t you used to be the top ten?

According to scientists, narcolepsy is genetic. Ironic. During this announcement, I fell asleep.

Today’s top five or Desperate Housewives’ mistakes (1) Gabrielle overweight, (2) Susan’s divorce, (3) Edie’s husband, (4) Danielle’s marriage, (5) Lynette’s children

Economic Reconciliation?

On Sunday, Republicans and Democrats compromised. The proposal includes executive compensation constraint, governmental remuneration, mortgage renegotiation, oversight, securities insurance and purchasing, and taxpayer remuneration.

Thursday’s agreement was tentative. This agreement is tentative. Republicans and Democrats must concede and withdrawal. As previously stated, partisan objectives are inconsequential. Political victory is irrelevant. America’s economy needs saving.

Scorched Elite

Oregon State 27 (1) USC 21
In two contests, USC outscored their opponents 87-10. They amassed 906 yards. Unfortunately, they remained vulnerable. On Thursday, USC averaged only 3.9 yards per carry. They committed two turnovers. Their eight consecutive win did not occur.

(8) Alabama 41 (3) Georgia 30
Last season, Alabama struggled. Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State defeated them. This season, Alabama has shimmered. They have amassed 195 points. They have surrendered only 67 points. They have obliterated two top ten opponents.

Mississippi 31 (4) Florida 30
Tim Tebow. Percy Harvin. Brandon James. Chris Rainey. Florida’s only opponent is complacency. On Saturday, Mississippi pounced. With 3:28 remaining, they blocked an extra point. With 1:00 remaining, they collared Tebow. They shocked college football.

Michigan 27 (9) Wisconsin 25
In the first half, Wisconsin outscored Michigan 19-0. The Badgers forced five turnovers. In the second half, Sam McGuffie, Brandon Minor, and Steve Threet tallied touchdowns. The Wolverines garnered their greatest reprieve.

The Big Five

For reasons good and bad… they were the news.

The Hot Five

A quintet of sizzling conversation starters.

Eulogizing A Moron

On May 27, I castigated Mark Cherry. Today, I condemn him. Five years ahead was an asinine conclusion. Five years ahead is an apocryphal storyline. Unfortunately, Cherry cannot escape. He cannot recover. His exquisite program is ruined.

Line of the Morning

Senator John McCain (R-AZ)

“I've been in many, many debates. And a lot of the times I don't look at my opponents because I'm focusing on the people and the American people that I'm talking to.”