For John McCain, a victory in November could come at a steep price. Throughout his campaign, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee has been shifting to the right in an effort to woo the GOP’s wobbly conservative base. But that shift could make it harder for Republicans to win or hang on to House and Senate seats in key swing districts this fall.
McCain longtime image of a moderate “maverick” who championed campaign finance reform, the environment and pork-barrel busting could be a big help in tight congressional races where independent and swing voters could make or break the election.
But if he continues to shift right to appeal to those base voters who are skeptical of him, he may not be welcome in those districts where he has the strongest role to play. “He is right now being groomed by many in the Republican Party to create his conservative bona fides, and in doing so he may be pushing away some of the moderate vote that made him so attractive in the primary and caucus races,” said Matt Towery, who has worked in Republican campaigns and now runs the Insider Advantage polling company in Georgia.
“If that’s beginning to develop,” Towery warned, “the coattails may be far and few between.”
McCain’s touch-and-go relationship with the GOP’s conservative base is no secret. In a FOXNews/Opinion Dynamics poll in June, only 54 percent of Republicans surveyed said they were satisfied with their choice for president this year, compared to 78 percent of Democrats who said they were satisfied with Barack Obama. McCain’s recent turnaround on the issue of offshore oil drilling and his reported support for an amendment to California’s constitution barring same-sex marriages may appeal to conservative voters, but those positions risk turning off moderate voters in swing districts.
And while McCain needs conservatives to turn out and vote for him on Election Day, the Republicans most needing his help this year are moderates from mixed districts who rely on crossover votes and independents to win. For instance, political analysts say McCain could potentially help former Pennsylvania Rep. Melissa Hart, a Republican who was upset by Democrat Jason Altmire in 2006 in her Democratic-trending suburban Pittsburgh district. The problem for McCain, said Larry Ceisler, a Democratic consultant in Pennsylvania, is he “really hasn’t done anything to show these moderate and independents that he is one of them.”
However, Ceisler noted, “McCain is certainly an improvement over Bush and (former Sen. Rick) Santorum, so I think he will create a somewhat better environment” for swing voters than in the 2006 midterm, when Republicans lost four seats in Pennsylvania.
In New York, where four of the six Republican seats are in play, and two Democratic freshmen are defending swing districts, a moderate McCain could be a big help. Republican Reps. Tom Reynolds and Jim Walsh are retiring, leaving open seats, and competitive Republican challenges have been posted against Democratic freshmen Reps. Kirsten Gillibrand and John Hall. In New York’s 29th Congressional District, sophomore Republican Rep. Randy Kuhl is hoping to fend off Eric Massa, who nearly beat Kuhl two years ago.
In Ohio, Republican Rep. Steve Chabot is fighting to keep his seat against Democrat Steve Driehaus in the 1st Congressional District, where party identification is split 50-50. In Indiana, former Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel is trying to take back the 9th District seat from Democratic Rep. Baron Hill, from whom Sodrel took the seat two years earlier. In Virginia, Republican Keith Fimian is battling to keep retiring Rep. Tom Davis’ seat in the Republican column. The 11th District is in Northern Virginia, which has been largely credited with helping Barack Obama win the state against Hillary Clinton during the February Democratic primary, and with ousting conservative Republican Sen. George Allen in favor of Democrat Jim Webb in 2006.
In Minnesota, Republican Sen. Norm Coleman is fending off a stiff challenge from Democrat Al Franken. Drew Emmer, a writer for the
Wright County Republican Web log, said that conservatives there are rallying behind Coleman and McCain, both of whom Emmer considers moderate and a good fit for the state. He said he thinks Coleman is probably helping McCain in the state rather than the other way around. “Norm can help McCain a great deal,” Emmer said, adding that the “energy is palpable … the party has solidified behind Coleman and McCain in a big way.”
Joe Monahan, an independent voter who runs a political
Web log in New Mexico, says McCain’s influence there will depend on his philosophical priorities. Considered one of the major swing states of the presidential election, New Mexico is holding a competitive Senate race and has two open House seats. The 1st District, held by moderate Republican Rep. Heather Wilson, is a longtime swing district, but the 2nd District, which is heavily conservative, is being put up for grabs since GOP Rep. Steve Pearce is running for the Senate.
New Mexicans are independent thinkers who tend to split their tickets, said Monahan. While the moderates in the 1st District might be favorable to McCain, the 2nd District’s conservatives may resist him. In New Mexico, he said, “I don’t think the Republicans here are counting on any coattails.”
Republican Sen. John Sununu is facing a strong challenge from former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, a state that has been dramatically trending Democrat. McCain won the state in the 2000 and 2004 presidential primaries, and has always been considered well-liked there.His campaign is specifically targeting independents and moderate Democrats in the Granite State. “He had a brand name here that others didn’t,” said Dante Scala, a professor of politics at the University of New Hampshire. “I think John McCain, of all the candidates who ran for the Republican nomination, has the best chance to carry the state.”
Scala said he is wondering how McCain is “going to talk to independents when he gets here. … And he’s facing the problem, where he has to rally the Republican base, which is still suspicious of him.”
Ken Spain, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Campaign, said McCain is “a terrific asset” and the party has encouraged Republican candidates “to embrace his candidacy.”
Spain would not get specific on where McCain could help or who has actually embraced him on the trail. McCain’s spokesman, Tucker Bounds, was equally vague. “There are core foundations that are part of John McCain’s message of reform, prosperity and peace that candidates across the country will have the opportunity to highlight in their own races. We are leading for a new direction in Washington … and we expect not to be alone.”
Pundits are questioning whether Republican candidates, already battling a diminished GOP brand and President Bush’s dismal approval ratings, will reach out to McCain when he takes his message into their districts. They point out that although Jim Oberweis campaigned and raised funds with McCain in the heavily GOP Illinois District previously held by former Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert, he still lost by six points to Democrat Bill Foster.
According to news reports, shortly after Oberweis’ March loss, Mississippi Republican Greg Davis avoided campaigning with McCain when he came to town during the May special election for the seat of Rep. Roger Wicker, who was appointed to the U.S. Senate to replace retiring Sen. Tent Lott. Davis lost to underdog Democrat Travis Childers. Its to early to tell the real effect McCain’s candidacy will have on the trail, said Nathan Gonzales, editor for the Rothenberg Political Report. Republicans face another tough election year, but the loss of three special elections in a row — Louisiana’s 6th District went to Democrat Don Cazayoux in May — certainly cannot be blamed on McCain, he said.
Still, the political climate in the coming months — the war, the economy, McCain’s ability to separate himself effectively from Bush — will mean everything. Overall, Gonzales said, “I think candidates across the country would welcome McCain into their districts. The problem is, McCain has his own race to run. His number one priority — the [Republican National Committee's] number one priority — is making John McCain president. If he can help fellow Republicans along the way, he’ll do that.”
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