Fox News: Republicans Are Burning
Connecticut Rep. Christopher Shays has been in Congress for 21 years and is the Republican Party's last remaining representative from a state in New England. Come Election Day, he could be gone. Shays is in a competitive race, against Democratic challenger Jim Himes -- a face-off that underscores the problems congressional Republicans will face two weeks from now.
Not only is the GOP expected to suffer double-digit losses in the House and lose at least a handful of Senate seats, but among the potentially vanquished are long-serving, powerful and strategically placed members of the Republican Party. Their defeat could only deepen Republican frustrations in a Congress that has become increasingly controlled by Democrats.
A poll released Monday by the University of Connecticut showed the race for Shays' District 4 seat has become a dead heat, with each candidate pulling 44 percent. "That would be very difficult for the party, to have no beachhead in an entire region of the country," said David Wasserman, House editor for The Cook Political Report. "It's hard to pick out a place where Democrats were ever that shut out when they were a minority. Republicans would be starting from scratch trying to get anything back there."
The Himes campaign has taken to calling the Democratic challenger the "front-runner," based on the latest poll numbers. Himes spokesman Michael Sachse said in an e-mail that the economic turmoil of the past few weeks contributed "added strength" to Himes' candidacy, and that "voters see Jim as someone who both shares their values and as someone who has the energy and ability to solve the critical problems we face."
Himes, a former Goldman Sachs vice president, now runs an affordable housing organization. Michael Sohn, Shays' campaign manager, told FOXNews.com it would be a big loss for the GOP if voters elected "another partisan politician to Washington" over a "moderate" like Shays.
But Sohn said Shays' chances are good, and that the campaign is drawing attention to his record of speaking out for years on energy issues and the problems at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. "The bottom line to it is we've lived through this before," Sohn said. "Chris is in the center of the political spectrum. He works with Republicans. He works with Democrats.... This district knows Christopher -- they have a bond with Christopher."
Another GOP congressman in peril is Don Young of Alaska, who was first elected in 1973. He is the third longest-serving Republican member in the House and he is the 49th State's only congressman. Young, famous for pushing earmarks like the so-called Bridge to Nowhere, is under investigation for ties to oil field services company VECO Corp. He has spent more than $1 million from his campaign war chest on legal fees and is facing off against Democratic former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz. His Republican primary race against Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell, which Young won by just over 300 votes, foretells a stiff battle in the general election.
The Cook Political Report calls the Alaska race a toss-up, while others say it's clearly leaning Democratic. Analysts also point to Ohio Rep. Steve Chabot (first elected in 1994), Pennsylvania Rep. Phil English (first elected in 1994) and Michigan Rep. Joe Knollenberg (first elected in 1992) as examples of other veteran House Republicans at risk of losing their seats. "Shays is close to his Waterloo," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. "And Young is there."
On the Senate side, another Alaska political stand-by is very much in danger of losing his seat. Sen. Ted Stevens, the Republican Party's longest-serving senator, is in a tight race against Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. Stevens' federal corruption trial, in which he is facing charges of failing to report gifts, has dragged on during the height of campaign season.
His electoral fate may hinge on the verdict of his case, which is in its closing stages after Stevens took the stand to testify in his own defense. A Rasmussen Reports poll on Oct. 7 showed him leading Begich by 1 percentage point. "If he's exonerated in court, there's always the chance the home flock will decide to pat him on the back and give him another six-year term, but I think there's a decent chance he will lose whether he's exonerated or not," Sabato said.
Even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky is facing a challenge on Election Day. He easily led his opponent, millionaire Democrat Bruce Lunsford, for most of the campaign season. But as the economic crisis enveloped Wall Street and Washington, McConnell, like many other Republicans, saw his race grow more competitive.Political forecasters show the Kentucky Senate race as leaning Republican. "If you were going to bet on any Republican to survive this extremely difficult year, it would be Mitch McConnell," Sabato said.
But Michael Barone, political author and FOX News analyst, said the latest poll numbers don't bode well for McConnell. A Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll in late September showed McConnell leading Lunsford by just 1 percentage point. "You've got to think that McConnell may be in some trouble," said Barone, who predicts the GOP will suffer an 18-seat loss in the House and will lose as many as six seats in the Senate.
The Republican Party's operation is hampered by President Bush's low approval ratings and the economic turmoil, as well as the get-out-the-vote fervor behind Barack Obama's presidential campaign and the fact that five times as many House Republicans have chosen not to run for re-election as House Democrats. Among those leaving are Rep. Vito Fossella, the only Republican from New York City, who was convicted last week of drunk driving. His seat is rated by analysts as leaning Democratic in the general election. Sabato said the Election Day forecast places the Republican Party "in the wilderness for at least two years" as they sideline their agenda and "wait until Democrats screw up."
He said the plus side for the GOP -- especially if Obama wins the White House -- is everything that happens internationally and domestically will "belong" to the Democrats, including the negative developments. Wasserman said Republicans likely will see major internal turnover. He said voter frustration over the $700 billion economic bailout plan may open the door for younger, more conservative members to rise through the ranks after Election Day and call on the party to listen more closely to its base.
"The party is burning to the ashes right now," Wasserman said. "I think there will be major changes not only in committees but potentially in leadership."
Not only is the GOP expected to suffer double-digit losses in the House and lose at least a handful of Senate seats, but among the potentially vanquished are long-serving, powerful and strategically placed members of the Republican Party. Their defeat could only deepen Republican frustrations in a Congress that has become increasingly controlled by Democrats.
A poll released Monday by the University of Connecticut showed the race for Shays' District 4 seat has become a dead heat, with each candidate pulling 44 percent. "That would be very difficult for the party, to have no beachhead in an entire region of the country," said David Wasserman, House editor for The Cook Political Report. "It's hard to pick out a place where Democrats were ever that shut out when they were a minority. Republicans would be starting from scratch trying to get anything back there."
The Himes campaign has taken to calling the Democratic challenger the "front-runner," based on the latest poll numbers. Himes spokesman Michael Sachse said in an e-mail that the economic turmoil of the past few weeks contributed "added strength" to Himes' candidacy, and that "voters see Jim as someone who both shares their values and as someone who has the energy and ability to solve the critical problems we face."
Himes, a former Goldman Sachs vice president, now runs an affordable housing organization. Michael Sohn, Shays' campaign manager, told FOXNews.com it would be a big loss for the GOP if voters elected "another partisan politician to Washington" over a "moderate" like Shays.
But Sohn said Shays' chances are good, and that the campaign is drawing attention to his record of speaking out for years on energy issues and the problems at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. "The bottom line to it is we've lived through this before," Sohn said. "Chris is in the center of the political spectrum. He works with Republicans. He works with Democrats.... This district knows Christopher -- they have a bond with Christopher."
Another GOP congressman in peril is Don Young of Alaska, who was first elected in 1973. He is the third longest-serving Republican member in the House and he is the 49th State's only congressman. Young, famous for pushing earmarks like the so-called Bridge to Nowhere, is under investigation for ties to oil field services company VECO Corp. He has spent more than $1 million from his campaign war chest on legal fees and is facing off against Democratic former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz. His Republican primary race against Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell, which Young won by just over 300 votes, foretells a stiff battle in the general election.
The Cook Political Report calls the Alaska race a toss-up, while others say it's clearly leaning Democratic. Analysts also point to Ohio Rep. Steve Chabot (first elected in 1994), Pennsylvania Rep. Phil English (first elected in 1994) and Michigan Rep. Joe Knollenberg (first elected in 1992) as examples of other veteran House Republicans at risk of losing their seats. "Shays is close to his Waterloo," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. "And Young is there."
On the Senate side, another Alaska political stand-by is very much in danger of losing his seat. Sen. Ted Stevens, the Republican Party's longest-serving senator, is in a tight race against Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. Stevens' federal corruption trial, in which he is facing charges of failing to report gifts, has dragged on during the height of campaign season.
His electoral fate may hinge on the verdict of his case, which is in its closing stages after Stevens took the stand to testify in his own defense. A Rasmussen Reports poll on Oct. 7 showed him leading Begich by 1 percentage point. "If he's exonerated in court, there's always the chance the home flock will decide to pat him on the back and give him another six-year term, but I think there's a decent chance he will lose whether he's exonerated or not," Sabato said.
Even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky is facing a challenge on Election Day. He easily led his opponent, millionaire Democrat Bruce Lunsford, for most of the campaign season. But as the economic crisis enveloped Wall Street and Washington, McConnell, like many other Republicans, saw his race grow more competitive.Political forecasters show the Kentucky Senate race as leaning Republican. "If you were going to bet on any Republican to survive this extremely difficult year, it would be Mitch McConnell," Sabato said.
But Michael Barone, political author and FOX News analyst, said the latest poll numbers don't bode well for McConnell. A Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll in late September showed McConnell leading Lunsford by just 1 percentage point. "You've got to think that McConnell may be in some trouble," said Barone, who predicts the GOP will suffer an 18-seat loss in the House and will lose as many as six seats in the Senate.
The Republican Party's operation is hampered by President Bush's low approval ratings and the economic turmoil, as well as the get-out-the-vote fervor behind Barack Obama's presidential campaign and the fact that five times as many House Republicans have chosen not to run for re-election as House Democrats. Among those leaving are Rep. Vito Fossella, the only Republican from New York City, who was convicted last week of drunk driving. His seat is rated by analysts as leaning Democratic in the general election. Sabato said the Election Day forecast places the Republican Party "in the wilderness for at least two years" as they sideline their agenda and "wait until Democrats screw up."
He said the plus side for the GOP -- especially if Obama wins the White House -- is everything that happens internationally and domestically will "belong" to the Democrats, including the negative developments. Wasserman said Republicans likely will see major internal turnover. He said voter frustration over the $700 billion economic bailout plan may open the door for younger, more conservative members to rise through the ranks after Election Day and call on the party to listen more closely to its base.
"The party is burning to the ashes right now," Wasserman said. "I think there will be major changes not only in committees but potentially in leadership."
posted by Daily Observer at 7:47 PM
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