GOP USA: McCain’s Straight Talk Solution
John McCain, the rebel Republican hopeful of 2000, tried to become the establishment candidate for 2008 -- and it didn't work. Now he's trying to return to his roots. He has little choice; his stand-up reputation, deft campaign trail skills and a vastly unsettled GOP field are about all he has going for him.
''Running as an establishment candidate robbed him of the most compelling and unique aspects of his political persona -- the reformer, the insurgent, the maverick,'' said Dan Schnur, an adviser to McCain in his first presidential run. ''He's still the same guy but wrapped into the establishment. Maybe they can still strip that away.''
Once the GOP front-runner, McCain finds his second presidential candidacy in peril six months before the primary voting begins. Over the past week, he accepted the resignations of two top aides and elevated a third to run the campaign, laid off more than half his staff, narrowed his strategy to three states and disclosed he had only $2 million to spend.
All that capped a turbulent six months for the Republican who had cast himself as the invincible and inevitable nominee as last year ended. Since then, McCain has watched his support slip slowly in national polls as others -- Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson -- became serious contenders and as the Arizona senator suffered from his against-the-grain positions on Iraq and immigration. He's lost about 10 percentage points since January, sliding from the mid-20s to the mid-teens.
McCain acknowledged ''ups and downs'' but was undeterred on Wednesday. ''We will continue to campaign the way I do best, which is not with money, but with town-hall meetings and face-to-face encounters with the voters. And I'm confident we will do very well,'' he said after meeting with Bush at the White House to discuss Iraq. ''I am confident, as I was in the past, that I can out-campaign any of my competitors.''
He will return to the campaign trail Friday with a speech about Iraq and terrorism in New Hampshire. In the coming weeks, aides say he will press his signature issues -- excessive federal spending, national security and foreign policy -- and make the case that even if voters don't agree with him, he will tell it like it is. ''They're starting over and he's got as good a chance as anybody else,'' said Charlie Black, a Republican informally advising the campaign.
McCain allies argue that the volatile race and flaws in his top rivals give him an opening. Supporters contend that when voters weigh the options, they will turn to the 70-year-old McCain, seeing him as an experienced leader and man of principle who puts the country's interests above all, including his political aspirations.
Despite the woes, his supporters say polls in the early voting states show voters are open to change and there's plenty of time to rebound; John Kerry was in dire straits late in 2003 but won the Democratic nomination little more than two months later.
'I've been around enough of these camps to know this happens. I'm not down,'' said Marlys Popma, a veteran organizer and evangelical in Iowa. Ralph Klemme, a farmer and retired state legislator in the leadoff caucus state, said: ''I'm concerned, there's no doubt about it, but I still believe he's the right man for the job.''
But outsiders see a very bleak situation. ''It's looking more and more like a doomed candidacy,'' said John Hibbing, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. ''McCain was never a favorite of among (hard-core) Republicans; he always played better as the gadfly.''
That's what he was in 2000. McCain lost to Bush, the establishment favorite, but emerged from the race a popular politician whose reputation for truth-telling was refreshing to many disenchanted voters.
Since then, McCain set out to assume the role of favored candidate, mindful of the party's history of nominating the loser of the previous contested primary. He melded loyalists from his failed bid with Bush operatives, fundraisers and supporters, and created a behemoth national organization -- some say a front-runner's campaign -- with a presence in a number of states.
Advisers counted on raising $100 million this year and they spent as though they had, blowing through some $23 million in six months without airing a single costly television ad. Politically, as McCain mapped out his second run, concerns emerged that he was well-positioned for a general election fight but his independent streak hampered his chances to win the Republican nod.
McCain subsequently tried to improve his relationship with fickle conservatives, including accepting an invitation from the Rev. Jerry Falwell to speak to a Liberty University graduation class last year.
Even as he courted a GOP bloc he frequently irked, McCain was still embracing positions he knew were politically toxic. On Iraq and immigration, he linked himself to Bush, a woefully unpopular president in a country focused on change.
As the year dawned, McCain's drumbeat for more troops in Iraq became Bush's policy. Although most Republicans still back the president on Iraq, the general public does not and McCain's stance may have undercut his standing with Republicans looking for a general election winner. His stand certainly hurt his support among independents, who were crucial to his New Hampshire triumph in 2000.
On immigration, McCain backed the president's bipartisan legislation that would have allowed millions of illegal immigrants to eventually gain citizenship. The proposal deeply divided the party. McCain's aides said the issue put a huge dent in fundraising and support.
McCain conceded his stands on both issues have hurt him with voters. ''I fully understand that my positions that I have taken are not popular with some of our base ... but I have to do what's right.''
At this point, he can only hope voters reward him for that.
''Running as an establishment candidate robbed him of the most compelling and unique aspects of his political persona -- the reformer, the insurgent, the maverick,'' said Dan Schnur, an adviser to McCain in his first presidential run. ''He's still the same guy but wrapped into the establishment. Maybe they can still strip that away.''
Once the GOP front-runner, McCain finds his second presidential candidacy in peril six months before the primary voting begins. Over the past week, he accepted the resignations of two top aides and elevated a third to run the campaign, laid off more than half his staff, narrowed his strategy to three states and disclosed he had only $2 million to spend.
All that capped a turbulent six months for the Republican who had cast himself as the invincible and inevitable nominee as last year ended. Since then, McCain has watched his support slip slowly in national polls as others -- Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson -- became serious contenders and as the Arizona senator suffered from his against-the-grain positions on Iraq and immigration. He's lost about 10 percentage points since January, sliding from the mid-20s to the mid-teens.
McCain acknowledged ''ups and downs'' but was undeterred on Wednesday. ''We will continue to campaign the way I do best, which is not with money, but with town-hall meetings and face-to-face encounters with the voters. And I'm confident we will do very well,'' he said after meeting with Bush at the White House to discuss Iraq. ''I am confident, as I was in the past, that I can out-campaign any of my competitors.''
He will return to the campaign trail Friday with a speech about Iraq and terrorism in New Hampshire. In the coming weeks, aides say he will press his signature issues -- excessive federal spending, national security and foreign policy -- and make the case that even if voters don't agree with him, he will tell it like it is. ''They're starting over and he's got as good a chance as anybody else,'' said Charlie Black, a Republican informally advising the campaign.
McCain allies argue that the volatile race and flaws in his top rivals give him an opening. Supporters contend that when voters weigh the options, they will turn to the 70-year-old McCain, seeing him as an experienced leader and man of principle who puts the country's interests above all, including his political aspirations.
Despite the woes, his supporters say polls in the early voting states show voters are open to change and there's plenty of time to rebound; John Kerry was in dire straits late in 2003 but won the Democratic nomination little more than two months later.
'I've been around enough of these camps to know this happens. I'm not down,'' said Marlys Popma, a veteran organizer and evangelical in Iowa. Ralph Klemme, a farmer and retired state legislator in the leadoff caucus state, said: ''I'm concerned, there's no doubt about it, but I still believe he's the right man for the job.''
But outsiders see a very bleak situation. ''It's looking more and more like a doomed candidacy,'' said John Hibbing, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. ''McCain was never a favorite of among (hard-core) Republicans; he always played better as the gadfly.''
That's what he was in 2000. McCain lost to Bush, the establishment favorite, but emerged from the race a popular politician whose reputation for truth-telling was refreshing to many disenchanted voters.
Since then, McCain set out to assume the role of favored candidate, mindful of the party's history of nominating the loser of the previous contested primary. He melded loyalists from his failed bid with Bush operatives, fundraisers and supporters, and created a behemoth national organization -- some say a front-runner's campaign -- with a presence in a number of states.
Advisers counted on raising $100 million this year and they spent as though they had, blowing through some $23 million in six months without airing a single costly television ad. Politically, as McCain mapped out his second run, concerns emerged that he was well-positioned for a general election fight but his independent streak hampered his chances to win the Republican nod.
McCain subsequently tried to improve his relationship with fickle conservatives, including accepting an invitation from the Rev. Jerry Falwell to speak to a Liberty University graduation class last year.
Even as he courted a GOP bloc he frequently irked, McCain was still embracing positions he knew were politically toxic. On Iraq and immigration, he linked himself to Bush, a woefully unpopular president in a country focused on change.
As the year dawned, McCain's drumbeat for more troops in Iraq became Bush's policy. Although most Republicans still back the president on Iraq, the general public does not and McCain's stance may have undercut his standing with Republicans looking for a general election winner. His stand certainly hurt his support among independents, who were crucial to his New Hampshire triumph in 2000.
On immigration, McCain backed the president's bipartisan legislation that would have allowed millions of illegal immigrants to eventually gain citizenship. The proposal deeply divided the party. McCain's aides said the issue put a huge dent in fundraising and support.
McCain conceded his stands on both issues have hurt him with voters. ''I fully understand that my positions that I have taken are not popular with some of our base ... but I have to do what's right.''
At this point, he can only hope voters reward him for that.
posted by Daily Observer at 10:02 PM
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